June 2025 Your Castle Real Estate Newsletter

What’s Hotter Than the Stock Market? Aspen Real Estate

While much of the real estate world is balancing more supply and cautious buyers, Aspen is seeing a very different kind of energy—one that’s high-dollar, high-demand, and surprisingly resilient. In just a three-month span between February 1 and May 1, home sales priced over $10 million in Aspen jumped 44% from the previous year, according to The Wall Street Journal. That’s not just a spike—it’s a sign that ultra-high-net-worth buyers see Aspen as more than a getaway; they see it as a financial safe harbor.

Unlike the broader housing market, where some buyers are pulling back, Aspen’s luxury scene is thriving. Why? Because the ultra-wealthy are turning to real estate as a hedge against volatility. “The chance of taking a hit in the stock market is a bit too high for the reward,” said buyer Dan Herbatschek, who recently signed contracts totaling more than $20 million across several luxury properties. In Aspen, the story is similar—cash-heavy buyers are putting their money in properties that feel tangible, stable, and elite.

And it’s not just about ownership—it’s about presence. In a time when many markets are recalibrating, Aspen offers something irreplaceable: year-round lifestyle value. Whether it’s skiing, hiking, fine dining, or just being surrounded by mountain magic, these homes offer a backdrop for memory-making, not just portfolio-building. For the wealthiest buyers, timing the market is less important than finding the right place—and being ready when it appears.

This trend has implications beyond Pitkin County. As the luxury market heats up in Aspen, it may foreshadow how top-tier segments in other high-demand destinations could perform. Buyers at this level are less rate-sensitive and more driven by long-term positioning. When someone drops $85 million on a compound (as one buyer did recently in Naples), it’s not about timing the bottom—it’s about capturing the best. “No one ever regretted buying the very best,” said billionaire David MacNeil. Aspen’s high-end buyers seem to agree.

So while the Denver metro is focused on building inventory and buyer-seller balance, Aspen is reminding us that some markets play by their own rules. The high alpine isn’t just cold—it’s commanding serious heat. And for those watching trends at all price points, it's worth noting that luxury might not drive the entire market, but it still sets the tone.

Inventory on the Rise: What It Means for Buyers and Sellers

After years of tight supply, Denver is entering a new phase of the real estate cycle. We’re now seeing inventory build at a pace that’s putting us in national conversations—not for scarcity, but for growth. According to a report published in April, Denver ranks third behind San Jose and Las Vegas for the fastest-growing unsold inventory. It’s a notable shift, and while the swing from ultra-competitive to moderate may feel dramatic, what we’re seeing is a market that’s finally balancing out. In most neighborhoods, sellers are no longer fielding a dozen offers overnight—now, they’re competing with their neighbors to win over buyers.

As inventory builds, preparation and timing are everything. For both buyers and sellers, understanding the current rhythm of the market is key. In May, the number of new listings rose again—up 3.26 percent for detached homes and 2.80 percent for attached homes. That steady increase means more options, more comparisons, and more competition. It also means that those entering the market with a clear strategy have an edge.

By the end of May, active listings reached 13,599—up 13.67 percent from April and a striking 48.48 percent higher than the same time last year. This marks the highest inventory level Denver has seen since 2011. While we’re still slightly under the long-term May average of 14,510 listings, the gap is closing quickly. To put it in perspective, April 2006 set the record with 30,457 listings, while 2021 hit a record low with just 2,075. More homes coming to market is good news overall, but it underscores the need for both buyers and sellers to approach this landscape with clarity, intention, and staying power.

Still, inventory alone doesn’t tell the whole story. Market direction is driven by the balance between supply and demand. Pending sales—an early indicator of buyer activity—dropped in April, but May brought a resurgence with pending contracts up 6.88 percent month-over-month. Prices have held firm. The median sale price rose slightly in May: detached homes increased by 0.76 percent and attached homes by a more notable 4.52 percent. Homes are still moving—especially the ones that check all the right boxes. In fact, detached homes spent just 16 days in the MLS before selling, and attached homes averaged 28. Yet active listings are trending closer to 45 days, signaling a growing divide between turnkey and not-quite-ready properties. Multiple offers haven’t disappeared, but they’ve normalized—closer to list price and fewer in number. Mortgage rates have remained relatively steady, moving within a narrow 0.2 percent band in May, and consumer confidence ticked upward. A new Realtor.com survey showed that 23 percent of Millennials plan to buy this spring, up from 15 percent in the fall. Add in growing incomes and more accessible lending, and the market is quietly leaning toward more affordability.

As always, real estate remains hyperlocal. Every home sale is shaped by its specific location, condition, and the needs of the people involved. The key in this market is finding alignment—matching personal goals with real-time market dynamics. It’s about striking the right balance between patience and action, between strategy and flexibility. In times of change, staying grounded in your “why” while being open to a different “how” is what drives successful outcomes.

For Sellers:

With inventory growing, buyers have more choices—and they’re using them. Homes in desirable areas that are priced correctly and well-prepared can still sell quickly. But those that miss the mark on condition or price may sit longer and require reductions to attract attention. Presentation, price, and preparation are more important than ever. Focus on what you can control. Denver's rising inventory also means more negotiation. Redfin reports that 59.2 percent of Denver home sales in Q1 2025 included a seller concession. In this market, meeting buyers where they are isn’t weakness—it’s strategy.

For Buyers:

You wouldn’t know it from the headlines, but affordability is improving. Mortgage rates may be holding steady, but incomes are climbing. Wages rose 4.3 percent year-over-year in April, and personal income jumped 0.8 percent that same month—the biggest monthly gain since May 2021. That’s real growth that helps offset the cost of borrowing. More inventory means more negotiating power and more time to make the right decision. The market is shifting in ways that benefit prepared, informed buyers. If you've been waiting for space to act, now could be your moment.

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